Well, we will find out soon enough. England play two Tests in Bangladesh in February 2027, and Bangladesh play a one-off Test at Lord’s in May.
Until the past week, the question would have seemed frankly ludicrous. Bangladesh have played ten Tests against England, losing nine (four in England, five in Bangladesh) and winning one, in Bangladesh.
But everything now looks different following Bangladesh’s extraordinary win over Australia in Darwin.
There were a number of remarkable things about this game. When did Australia last play a home Test in August? The answer is, never. But they played two Tests, in Darwin and Cairns in July 2003 against, guess who, Bangladesh: there were ODIs in both venues in August. (The second Test in the current series is to be played at Mackay in northern Queensland.) Bangladesh had only played Australia six times, twice in Australia, losing both, four times at home, winning one and losing three. So the fact of the victory was extraordinary in itself.
Australia are, except in those occasional transitional periods, very difficult to beat at home. Asian sides have found the very different conditions particularly challenging. Sri Lanka have played 15 Tests in Australia since their first visit in 1987-88 and won none. Pakistan have played 40 Tests in Australia and won four of them, losing 29. They have lost every Test they have played there since 1999-2000. India are different of course; they have won two of their last three series in Australia. But they took a while to get going. They made their first tour in 1947-48, and won their first two Tests there thirty years later, against a side deprived of most of the leading players by the Kerry Packer insurgence. Even now the score is 33-10 to Australia. Moving away from Asia, New Zealand have played 34 Tests in Australia since 1945-46 and won three of them, in 1985-86 (two), and 2011-12 (one); they won the first series and drew the second. This shows what a fortress Australia is.
Was this the most extraordinary upset in Test history? That may seem a bold statement but there are not that many competitors. It must be an away victory, one would think. Home advantage is such an issue in Test cricket. Thus, although England’s victory over Australia at Headingley in 2019 was an astonishing feat, it was not such a major upset; the series was drawn two-all. Sri Lanka’s victory over South Africa six months earlier in Durban is a more realistic contender. This too was a one-wicket win, the target being 304, the highest score of the match. Kusal Perera went into bat with the score on 52 for three. When the ninth wicket fell, and he was joined by Vishwa Fernando, the score was 226 for nine. Perera finished on 153 not out, Fernando on 6 not out. Their partnership of 78 was the highest last-wicket stand to win any first-class match, not just a Test match. (Ben Stokes’ and Jack Leach’s 76 at Headingley is the third highest.). The South African attack included Dale Steyn and Kagiso Rabada. Again, context is important. Sri Lanka had lost eleven of their previous thirteen Tests in Sri Lanka. They went on to win the second Test, at Port Elizabeth, becoming the first Asian team to win a Test series in South Africa.
There have been other startling upsets in recent history, notably Australia’s defeats in Brisbane in 2020-21 and 2023-24, to India and West Indies respectively. But I think the only upset which merits comparison with Darwin and Durban is Pakistan’s victory over England at The Oval in 1954. Pakistan won a low-scoring match by 24 runs, thus squaring the series. The hero was the great fast-medium bowler Fazal Mahmood, who took twelve wickets in the match. The game does not seem as sensational, if that’s the right word, as the other two, but it really was at the time. Pakistan had only played five Tests, against India in 1952-53. Nobody gave them a chance against England, under the shrewd Yorkshireman Len Hutton, who had won The Ashes the previous year and were in the middle of one of their strongest periods. To win a Test match on their first visit to England is a unique achievement; even Australia didn’t manage that. Countries like India and New Zealand waited for decades. The Oval Test of 1954 was, as Peter Oborne says in his history of Pakistan cricket “momentous”.
There are a number of reasons why Darwin still stands out. Bangladesh is very much not at the top table of Test cricket. When people float the (awful) idea of two-division Test cricket – with no relegation, in case one of the Big Three has a poor stretch – it is assumed Bangladesh will be in the second division forever. Hence the fact that they almost never play against England and Australia and when they play Australia it is at a time when most of the country is still fixated with football. So their victory came as a real shock.
The other extraordinary thing about the win, apart from the fact of its existence, was its comprehensive nature. This was not a close game, like Headingley or Durban or The Oval. Bangladesh won by nine wickets. They outplayed Australia in every aspect except one: Pat Cummins won the toss. In one sense it was reminiscent of last winter’s Ashes series. There seemed to be one side that knew how to play Test cricket, and one that didn’t. Australia won the toss, batted, and just didn’t get enough runs. Bangladesh just kept the Australians out in the field for as long as they possibly could. Those four Australian bowlers have taken over 1,200 wickets between them but they won’t want to spend too many days pounding the earth in conditions like that. They have nineteen more Tests over the next twelve months. Bangladesh’s opener, Tanzid Hasan, is a T20 specialist who was playing in his second Test: he batted for five hours and scored a century. The off-spinner, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, who took five wickets in Australia’s second innings, batted at number seven in Bangladesh’s first innings and scored 65 in four hours. Australia’s batters were just not up to it in the second innings, though Cameron Green scored a worthy hundred.
I was lucky enough to see quite a bit of the game on TV. It wasn’t exciting, in the Bazball sense. But it was a very interesting cricket match played on a pleasant enough ground before an interested crowd. Bangladesh, unlike Sri Lanka, say, have produced few, if any, great players. But they have some very good ones, highly experienced batters, and some really promising cricketers. They have an experienced and sensible coach in Phil Simmons.
Watching this game soon after having seen England’s performance against New Zealand, let alone Australia, one could not be but a little bit concerned. Is the current England side actually capable of putting up a performance like Bangladesh’s in Darwin? Compare that with England’s defeat at Trent Bridge, particularly the run chase. England certainly do not seem to have a spinner taking five wickets in an innings. How on earth has it come to that? (Do we have to carry on blaming the Hundred – surely there should be some proper cricket in the height of summer when spinners should thrive.)
England will probably beat Bangladesh at Lord’s next year. That does not mean they don’t have any problems. The only good news is that maybe Australia’s are just as serious.
